“Now the bells are tolling -
a year is dead.
And my heart is slowly beating
the Nunc Dimittis
to all my hopes and mute
yearnings of a new year.
And ghosts hover round
dream beyond dream
Dream beyond dream
mingling with the brightest gleam.
Bell-sounds fading
into memories
like rain drops
falling into a river.
And now the bells are chiming -
a year is born.
And my heart-bell is ringing in a dawn.
But it’s shrouded things I see
dimly stride
on heart-canopied paths
to a riverside.
- Gabriel Okara
Fellow Nigerians, please, permit me to welcome you into the New Year with that exceptionally beautiful Poem by Gabriel Imomtimi Gbaingbain Okara. The words of that legendary writer encapsulates my message on this page today. The beginning of a New Year is usually a period of renewed hope for mankind. It is a time when we all bury our unfulfilled dreams and give birth to new fantasies.
I really don’t know what has happened to the old tradition of men of God, especially Pastors, publishing their prophesies and predictions at the beginning of the year. It used to be a hot potato in those good old days and newspapers used to fall over themselves to get copies from famous prophets and then run them almost verbatim most times.
Man is a naturally curious animal. In Africa, most of us practise syncretism, a combination of religions, because we are never too sure about which way would ultimately lead to heaven. This is why the oracle men (Diviners), marabouts and others are still very popular and generously patronised till this so-called modern day. Many of us would want to see our future, if it is truly possible.
I shall attempt to undertake such a task here and now. The year 2015 is too crucial to our dear country Nigeria. All manner of permutations are going on right now wherever two or more Nigerians are gathered and it all centres on what would happen before, during and after the elections coming up in February. The situation is already getting tense to the extent that many rich folks are relocating their families abroad or seeking new homes or hideouts far from the madding crowd that they think Nigeria is. It is such a shame that Democracy has become a theatre of war in our clime when elsewhere it is meant to be a pleasurable game of who controls the numbers.
The question on everyone’s heart and lip is what happens if President Goodluck Jonathan fails in his second term bid and General Muhammadu Buhari wins! Will the ruling party, PDP, which has entrenched itself in power give up the fight, arms akimbo, and walk away so quietly and miserably into insignificance and irrelevance? Will the core supporters of President Jonathan, made up of militants and possible soldiers of fortune allow power to slip from their hands, just like that, without putting up some riotous protest in defiance and to delay the inevitable. Those who are beating the war drums in anticipation and rehearsing their war strategies ahead of time may wish to test their true might when that time comes.
The second question is what happens if General Buhari fails and President Jonathan wins fair and square, or by hook and crook, and Buhari’s supporters cry foul, especially if the rigging or whatever it is called becomes too obvious and a free-for-all fight breaks out! No matter how the results go, one way or the other, will the loser agree to concede defeat? The general impression is that head or tail, a serious, possibly ‘roforofo’ fight (apologies to Fela) will ensue after this election. I beg to disagree.
My prediction is very simple and straight forward. The 2015 Presidential election is not going to be too close to call as many people expect. Whoever wins will do so decisively. A wind of change is blowing across the land at the speed of light. It is like a hurricane majestically sweeping across the nation carrying everybody along in its wake. If it persists, General Muhammadu Buhari will win resoundingly. The victory will be so blistering that the PDP won’t know or even see what has hit it as if in a lightning strike.
If President Jonathan is able to bounce back from the current blitzkrieg, then it means the wind of change would have been fatally downgraded to the extent that something major would have gone wrong with the APC candidates and/or their campaign. But I don’t see this happening. I’m willing and ready to place a bet that the PDP has reached its final bus stop, for now, after reigning unchallenged for 16 years. This is to be expected. Even the best of democracies abroad, political parties often suffer from natural law of diminishing returns after staying in power for so long. This kind of fatigue has already set in for PDP and a President Jonathan would be the natural collateral damage in the process.
Many factors will determine this almighty election. I will break them down once again. I will start with two interesting analogies. The first is original to me while the other comes from a discussion I had yesterday with a very famous Itsekiri man over breakfast. Let’s begin with mine.
The belief of most people I know is that neither APC nor PDP is perfect. They are readily dismissed as two sides of the same coin. Let’s stretch it further. Buhari and Jonathan both have their k-legs. But the former seems to have managed his own in such a way that people have come to terms with whatever is regarded as shortcomings while they have given up on any redeeming grace for Jonathan’s apparent weaknesses. In fact, Buhari in comparison to Jonathan is like having to choose between ulcer and cancer. Both ailments will definitely cause pain and discomfiture but the difference is still crystal clear.
My Itsekiri brother stretched my thoughts further. He said he had asked his wife a question recently while discussing Buhari and Jonathan: “Darling, who among the two would you want to leave our kids with if we decide to travel for one week…?” The stunned wife took a deep breath before answering: “If I’ve no other person to leave them with than those two, I think I will pick Buhari. I know he might not allow them to eat too much and he may even ban them from watching their Disney channels but at least the kids will be safe and we’ll meet them at home when we come back.” C’est finis!
That is the sad reality today. Many Nigerians don’t think the President has any new solutions to our economic woes, general insecurity, epileptic power, archaic infrastructure, reckless profligacy, epidemic corruption, ethnic conflagration and religious bigotry. What the President’s men are promoting ceaselessly as achievements are signs of backwardness for a nation as big, ambitious and prosperous as Nigeria, the proverbial giant of African. Most of them are nothing but relics and antiquities and we deserve much better if we must compete on the world stage. Nigerians are down and out and the options are too little and too few. They believe they have to try whatever else is available even if there is no guaranty of how things may turn out again.
Except for those profiting from the present status quo, and may be telling the present government lies about the situation out there, the cry everywhere is change. The scenario I foresee is that Buhari will clear a large percentage of the Muslim votes, while the Christian votes would be split but with the majority still following the Buhari/Osinbajo team. The choice of Prof Yemi Osinbajo, a respected Pastor of the Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG) as running mate to Buhari has refined my former thoughts in this respect.
There is no gainsaying the fact that Jonathan had previously succeeded in playing this religious card by his constant forays in the sanctuaries of various churches, Pentecostal and otherwise, but with Osinbajo being brought into the equation most of this advantage has vanished and the pendulum of the Christian votes has swung the way of the Buhari/Osinbajo ticket. Buhari will make a serious incursion into the President’s traditional territories while the President would find Buhari’s terrain almost impenetrable. Indeed people are now saying that Jonathan no longer has the monopoly of Christianity.
On the regional front, Buhari will score more votes than Jonathan in the entire North West and North East and Jonathan may struggle to record twenty-five percent in even a couple of them. The North Central will be a battle ground but Buhari will still have a slight edge. The South West will vote massively for Buhari this time even including Ondo and Ekiti states but Jonathan will record up to 25 percent in most of them. The South South will shock Mr President as Buhari will record minimum of 25 percent or more in Akwa Ibom, Cross River and Delta States and win more than 50 percent in Rivers and Edo States because of the Amaechi and Oshiomhole factors. Bayelsa is the only totally safe ground for President Jonathan. Even then one is not certain because of the schism within the PDP in that State.
In the South East, Buhari may shock pundits by recording up to 50 percent in IMO state, about 25 percent in Anambra, Enugu and Ebonyi States. Those who think the President will lock down the entire South South and South East are in for a rude shock and reawakening. In essence, APC will not only win in majority of the States it will win big because it controls most of the biggest states with massive votes in Nigeria.
Most of the PDP states are seriously going through one crisis or the other at this moment less than 45 days to the elections. On the contrary, APC has been able to manage its own internal crisis better without much ado. Where there have recently been cracks, those gaping holes have been practically healed except Ogun State where I still expect my godfather former Governor Segun Osoba, to return to the fold having invested so much energy and resources in the past.
If what the President’s people are banking on is their campaign of calumny against the General, it won’t fly this time around because Nigerians have virtually acclimatised to the bad weather that a Buhari Presidency may bring while they find the PDP heat too hot and scorching to bear again after 16 years of misadventure.
The election will not be as controversial as most people expect as the winner will be decided loud and clear. Of course, there will be skirmishes here and there but it won’t be anything the security forces won’t be able to handle, contain and crush if necessary. Many of those threatening brimstone and fireballs will be the first to flee in their private jets and speedboats now that they’ve made too much money from a fluid system.
I can see a star studded cabinet after May 29 formed of the crème de la crème of politicians, technocrats and professionals, all committed to serving their motherland. Every effort would be made to form a government of national unity comprising of both party and non-party members and Nigerians with proven talents from across the world will be invited to join and participate in this wind of change. The new government will work harder on giving a sense of belonging to all without alienating anyone. The current regime of those who fan the embers of ethnic and religious divisions for personal gain will be reversed and consigned to the dustbin of history.
This shall come to pass. God bless Nigeria.
[via ThisDay]
Jide the APC supporter, have you crossed the hurdle of presenting the non existent certificate of your low-iq presidential candidate? You sounded like there is going to be a keen contest, you will be disappointed as GEJ will sweep the polls. When it happens I expect a special poem from you for his swearing in ceremony.
Jeki, lol….
I would rather you refer to me as the person who wants a better Nigeria than we currently have. Fortunately, there is someone in the person of Buhari/Osinbajo that can offer this change. If that makes me an APC supporter, I will gladly receive this accolade in this season.
When they win, and they both decide to do a “Jonathan/Sambo’, nothing will stop me from advocating for a Change as I am not rigid to mediocrity.
I never fail to be amused by Nigerians that have been captured by the illusion of the benefits of a certificate for the President of Nigeria. Its a problem in Nigeria, across board.
Permit me to ask; in the continent of Africa, I have chosen not to include the rest of the world, which country would you say rate among the highest ‘degree holders’ or ‘certificate holders’? Nigeria. With all the certification, has it positively moved our country forward?
Isn’t our President suppose to be a Professor? How has it helped? So why the hullabaloo on the issue of certificate. Ok, let us assume he has the lowest certificate recognised by INEC to enable him contest, would that suffice?
I shall not be sidetracked. I refused to. Jonathan may be a good man, but not all good men are leaders. Some just have to be followers.
I hope to have you back to congratulate, not me, but Nigerians on the VICTORY of Buhari come feBuhari 15th.
Hi people wake up we are Nigerians, we all known what has been going on in this our great country don’t be pool because you belongs to Jonathon’s side that is why you don’t want to tall the trught wether you like it or not each an every nigerian knows we are in trouble in this country. OK, maybe because you and your entire family are living comportable if to say you’re living in Adamawa,Borno or Yobe you most not say what you are saying, don’t you see the security situetion of our country today, unstability of power,,poverty rate are increasing. Oh nor people let us justified ourself.
I feel your sentiments Aliyu… I do. Those who think good for all wouldn’t and shouldn’t support Jonathan’s Presidency. Period. There is nothing radical he proposes that is attractive to Nigerians in this season of change. Is it a sin to be a realist? Thanks for your views Aliyu.
This Dele’s analogy is an eye’s opener on the coming election.
Dele”s judgement is biased. BUHARI will not win the 2015 presidential elections, no matter how you try to colour him. Sensational journalism does not win elections in Nigeria. Wishful writings like you did cannot convince anyone to vote for a coup plotter. With your antecedents with Abiola, only a fool will listen to you. After Abiola won a free and fair elections, you were part of the poor judgements that misled him to take wrong steps in achieving his mandate. Why should we now trust your judgement?
Peter, let me first say thank you for taking the time to post your comments.
Also, let me puncture your statement-“BUHARI will not win the 2015 presidential elections, no matter how you try to colour him”- with a YOU ARE NOT GOD WHO KNOWS OUR TOMORROW. If it is an opinion, back up your claim. Also, when a commentator is abusive, it shows usually shows either shallowness or lack of self esteem. Saying someone is a fool is grandiose in ignorance.
facts speak for itself…. Mr president certainly may mean well but the sad truth is he does not have the balls,the same cabal from whom Dora Akunyili wrestled the reigns of power amd siege upon which they placed Nigeeians and handes to Mr preaident are the ones in control to the detriment of collective interest of the nation. he now hob-nobs,wines,frolicks and dines wit them & sees notin wrong wit the nation even in the obvious fact of the contrary. the problem wit african leaders is the “sit tight” syndrome and sycophancy. the alternative may not be a readily wonderful option but anytin apart from what is currently obtainable from this diapensation in terms of gud governance will be a welcomed development to every well meaning Nigerian. sentiments mot withstanding.
I concur. Its the sad reality of life in Nigeria at the moment. Thanks for your contributions.
Reblogged this on fahdazizah's Blog and commented:
Spot on Bob Dee!
Dele, your analysis is one sided, biased and sound like as if you and your party APC is the one feeding all Nigerians. I’m not surprise because I don’t expect better anaylsis from you as a polititician-journalist, you are justifying the money taking to do the job. What you fail to realise is that most of this sponsored declarations for Buhari will show their real colour when the down is cast. Pastor Bakare who is more popular and pragmatic when it comes to politics could not achieve anything for Buhari talkless of Tinubu stooge, prof Osibajo. You are saying Buhari will deal with corruption if he takes over power, would he be able to handle Tinubu, Atiku and Okorochas. We know the percentage of Lagos State internally generated revenue that is going to Tinubu’s pocket in Lagos and other APC states in the South west. Try to do your analysis objectively and independently and leave Nigerians to take their decision.
Now that you as an individual have identified some of the perceived or implied corrupt politicians the next question you should ask yourself is what step or action has this govt taken over the last 16yrs to deal with them. If you agree that this govt has failed to deal with corruption (which is the greatest problem in the society) or even to identify those responsible then you should agree that there is a need for change on LEADERSHIP of Nigeria.
Adesoji I concur.
Tell me who is not corrupt in this country, this is a crime everybody is quilty of unless we don’t want to be sincere with ourselves, the level of our corruption may differ. You are talking of change, all of us need to change our attitudes towards our common wealth. Who is a saint among the politicians? You are taliking of the last sixteen years of misrule of government, who among the so called ‘opposition’ is not part of Government?Is it Atiku Amaechi, Tinubu, kwankwanso,Obasanjo, Okorocha, Audu Ogbe, Amosun, Gemade etc my brother open your eyes don’t be fooled by the opposition propaganda and press. It is when they could no more have there way in PDP that they are moving to the opposition. Their own government will be worse than what we are witnessing now. To answer your question, it is in the last sixteen years that we have the two anti-corruption Institutions, EFCC and ICPC and also in the last sixteen years a former IG of Police, several Ministers, Governor have been Jailed for corruption cases.
I agreed with you to the point of “my brother open your eyes don’t be fooled by the opposition propaganda and press”. If at this stage of my life, I am unable to identify what I want, then ….Statements such as “Their own government will be worse than what we are witnessing now” does not warrant a response as it is clear your views on this matter have been pigeonholed. Thanks for posting your comments.
So because of all the aforementioned, you will sit on the fence or continue with the status quo. How pathetic can some of us Nigerians be! The die is cast, Rubicon has been crossed, just wait till next month when JEG will meet his waterloo at the poll! GMB will win and he win well by God’s grace come February!
I follow you on twitter and this piece doesn’t come as a surprise! I will only ask you one question; does Buhari need the kind of power he craves given his status, to help in the fight against Boko Haram?
Joni, thanks for following me on Twitter. To answer your question, I am not quiet sure what you mean by ‘the kind of power he craves’. He wants to be elected as the President of Nigeria. He has every right to as a citizen of Nigeria.
Buhari has to be the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Nigeria to be in a pivotal position to fight terrorism. As a former head of state, I honestly believe his influence is limited to rhetorics. Former Nigeria head of state who later became the President, and who is arguably the most influential National leader in Nigeria today tried to engage Boko Haram as an ex-President to no avail. You may have influence, but influence with REAL power is what counts. Influence to take position, to take shots, to take decisions, in my opinion is what he CRAVES for. In order-wards, a leader with guts to take tough decisions however unpopular they may seem to the minority is what Nigeria craves for in this season.
Thanks for your comment. Appreciate it.
By the way, could I have your twitter handle so I may follow back. I did a check but could not locate you. Cheers.
Dele had really hit the nail on the head. For those who do not know where they are headed, this analogy is a sure guiding light..